The National Retail Federation estimates more than 150 million consumers are planning to shop Thanksgiving weekend.

President Donald Trump’s trade war looms in the background with some tariffs in place and more set to come at the start of next year. The trade policies have left some businesses struggling to maintain profit margins.

Ball State University economist Michael Hicks says consumers most likely will not see price increases this holiday season, but if the tariffs continue, next year will be a different story.

“Most of the contracts for Christmas products were set way back in early summer before the first bite of tariffs came in,” says Hicks. “So a lot of producers are able to be profitable without passing along the tariff costs.”

Indiana University retail expert John Talbott agrees that while consumers may not feel the sting this year, the uncertainty of the future puts businesses that rely on international trade in a tough position.

“The bigger retailers like Target, have their own brands that they’re constructing with third-party plants around the globe,” says Talbott. “And then vendors that supply companies like Macy’s or Dick’s Sporting Goods have developed complex supply chains that have components that are globally sourced.”

He says the tariffs could lead to changes in what items businesses choose to sell next year, and for how much.